Springfield, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

923
FXUS63 KSGF 142318 AAA
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
518 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog with visibilities less than a quarter-mile late
  tonight and Friday morning mainly along and east of a
  Versailles to Houston to West Plains line. Additional patchy
  fog is expected from late Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Pleasant end to the week with sunny skies and near normal
  temperatures expected.

- A low pressure system will bring rain and windy conditions to
  the area from Sunday night into Monday night.

- Much cooler temperatures around the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Synoptic Scale Pattern and Current Conditions:

Water vapor imagery depicts upper level low pressure moving away
from the region with the center of the low located over Ohio.
The decreasing influence of cyclonic flow has resulted in
clearing skies across central Missouri with the remainder of the
Ozarks experiencing sunny conditions. Surface winds remain
light out of the northwest as a ridge axis continues to slide
east out of the central and southern Plains. Mid-afternoon
temperatures range from the upper 50s to middle 60s which is
near or slightly above normal.

Tonight through Friday Night (Including Fog Potential):

That surface ridge axis will shift right over the Missouri
Ozarks with skies remaining clear. This will set the stage for
efficient radiational cooling. The NBM is strongly clustered
around lows ranging from the lower and middle 30s across the
eastern Ozarks to the middle and upper 30s across western
Missouri.

Meanwhile, mid-afternoon dew points (effective cross-over
temperatures) across the eastern Ozarks generally remain in
the lower 40s with dew points in the upper 30s across western
Missouri and southeastern Kansas. With forecast overnight lows 5
to 8 degrees colder than these cross-over temperatures, the UPS
fog forecasting technique indicates that dense fog is likely
tonight across portions of central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks.

After collaboration with surrounding offices, we have posted a
Dense Fog Advisory where our confidence is highest in quarter-
mile (or less) visibilities. This is roughly along and east of a
Versailles to Houston to West Plains line. The advisory will
run from midnight through 9 AM on Friday. There is the potential
for expansion of the advisory to the west, especially in
locations where afternoon dew points can remain near 40 degrees.

One additional item of note for tonight will be overnight lows
approaching the freezing mark in our colder valleys of the
eastern Ozarks. This could lead to some very localized potential
for the freezing of fog on elevated surfaces. Roads would not
be impacted.

Once the fog burns off by late Friday morning, a pleasant day is
in store with winds returning to light southeasterly behind
that departing ridge axis. Weak warm air advection will support
highs warming into the lower and middle 60s over most areas.
Areas along the I-49 corridor will make a run at the upper 60s.

We will then have to watch for more fog potential across the
eastern Ozarks Friday night and early Saturday morning. The 12Z
HREF is painting 40-70% probabilities for quarter-mile
visibilities east of the Highway 65 corridor.

Quiet Weather to Start the Weekend:

An upper level ridge will shift east through the central U.S.
with an amplified trough positioned over the western U.S. This
will put our region in an increasing southwest flow aloft.
Quiet conditions are expected for Saturday with highs once again
ranging from the lower 60s along the Highway 63 corridor to the
middle and upper 60s along and west of the I-49 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Strong Storm System to Impact the Region Early Next Week:

Ensembles show good agreement that the upper level trough will
gradually begin to swing out towards the Plains from Sunday
into Monday. There is general consensus that two distinct upper
level lows will emerge from the main trough. One low will track
through the southern Canadian provinces with the second low
pivoting east through northern Mexico and emerging across the
southern Plains. Ensembles then track the southernmost upper
level low northeast into the Corn Belt region by late Monday.

As the upper level low begins to pivot out of northern Mexico,
surface low pressure will develop across the Texas Panhandle
from Sunday into Sunday night. The low will then rapidly deepen
and lift northeast through Oklahoma and Kansas on Monday while
undergoing an occlusion process. The low will then continue to
lift northeast and reach the western Great Lakes by Tuesday.

Increasing diffluence aloft will initially lead to increasing
rain chances late Sunday and especially Sunday night. Rain
showers will then persist into Monday, especially northwest of
I-44 where large scale ascent will be deeper and stronger. Areas
southeast of the interstate may not see all that much rainfall
with the initial phase of this system.

The occluded front should then bring another round of showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms as it crosses the area later
Monday or Monday night. Moisture return ahead of this system
will be more efficient than the last system, however instability
still looks rather limited. Shear will certainly be strong
given the dynamic nature of this system. Interestingly, the
Colorado State Machine- Learning site does paint 15% severe
weather probabilities for Monday across portions of Texas and
Oklahoma with the northernmost extent just clipping southwest
Missouri. This will be something to monitor as we head into the
weekend.

Another item of note with this system will be the potential for
heavy rainfall. Inspection of both the ECMWF and NAEFS output
reveals that moisture content available to this system will be
approaching 30-year climatological maximums. This makes sense
with an initial moisture fetch off of the south Pacific followed
by an atmospheric river off of the Gulf of Mexico. While we are
confident that the axis of heaviest rainfall will set up across
portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas, we remain unsure how
far east this corridor will stretch.

The NBM 72-hour probability for rainfall exceeding 2" is around
30-35% from our southeastern Kansas counties into west-central
Missouri. Probabilities of exceeding 3" drop off to less than
20% over these same areas. Ultimately, it will be the location
and magnitude of synoptic and mesoscale features that determine
the exact location of heaviest rainfall.

Another element of this system to consider is wind. A tight
pressure gradient is forecast to be in place across the area as
that surface low passes to our west from Sunday night into
Monday night. Sustained south to southeast winds of 15-30 mph
look increasingly likely along with gusts up to 40 mph. NBM
probabilities of gusts reaching 45 mph are running in the 10-30%
range north of the I-44 corridor, however statistical wind gust
potential out that far is not too trustworthy given coarser
ensemble resolution.

Tuesday through Thursday:

Long wave charts continue to indicate multiple high-over-low
blocking signals. This gives us below average confidence
regarding what type of synoptic pattern may transpire. With that
being said, the hemispheric pattern continues to support a much
cooler airmass spreading into the region around midweek.
Comparison of the global ensemble 850 mb temperature
interquartile range to conditional climatology suggests that
highs will not warm out of the 40s next Thursday, especially if
there are clouds around. Highs in the upper 30s are plausible if
we are closer to the 25th percentile of 850 mb temperatures.

In conjunction with the arrival of the cooler airmass, the
majority of ensemble members indicate an additional upper level
trough tracking somewhere across the central U.S. Given the
blocking pattern, there is massive variance regarding where this
feature may track, how deep it will get, and what the resulting
impacts will be on sensible weather. Global ensemble
statistical output continues to give us a 40-50% chance for
seeing snowflakes in the Wednesday through Friday of next week
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with mostly
clear skies. Winds will remain light and variable, becoming
southerly on Friday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday
     for MOZ056>058-070-071-082-083-097-098-106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Burchfield